The market still seems pretty undecided. There is bad news about the global economy, and there doesn’t seem like there is any ‘silver lining’ that can save it. However, the market is still tanking, with the S&P making a strong upward comeback recently. At the current price of about $53, the prices are low enough for USA shale rigs to just survive. Though I believe there is more downward inertia in the market, for oil in particular.

Forecasting Checklist

• Oil industry news
  • Political Plays?
    • OPEC supply cuts, though unconfirmed, seem to be having an effect ^
    • US-China trade war has a hope of being resolved ^
  • Level of uncertainty?
    • Still pretty high as the market could go either way
  • Upcoming events/meetings?
    • OPEC  – 18 April 2019
• Check status of economies
  • China has confirmed slower growth
  • Global growth slowing down evidence
• Check other charts for movement
  • USD
    • On the lower end and looks like it’s going up, but unsure, it is on a medium-term downtrend.
  • Gold
    • Plateauing, but on a general uptrend
    • Gold does not seem to be moving together with oil
• Technical analysis
  • TTM_LRC ranges
  • • Long term downtrend
      • But the price is in the middle now
    • Short trend uptrend

The Forecast

Mainly based on the TTM_LRC ranges, it would seem that it is less likely for prices to bounce up to previous highs than for it to drop downward.

• I am 85% confident that the price of WTI oil will not be above $61 on 15/03/2019.