I am back to do forecasting after multiple holidays interrupted my pattern. As I do not trade while on holidays, there was no chance to trade with the holidays continually overlapping with trade periods.

I am looking to do even shorter analyses than before as I feel they take too long to write up and to execute trades.

With the market being rather undecided, it seems that the best play to make is the non-directional one. However, the swing moves might too large, and I have a feeling that it is more likely to move either sideways or downwards. No amount of supply cuts is going to push the market up to what it was in Oct – Nov anytime soon. Basically, there is more inertia downwards than up.

Forecasting Checklist

• Oil industry news
  • Political Plays?
    • OPEC is expected to cut oil supply this month
  • Level of uncertainty?
    • Oil torn between economic slowdown concerns, OPEC-led supply cuts. The OPEC cuts give support, but the bad economy signs push it down
  • Upcoming events/meetings?
    • OPEC says no need for early OPEC meeting
• Check status of economies
  • Oil demand?
    • Dependant on the global economy which has a weakening outlook.
• Check other charts for movement
  • USD
    • Weaker than last month
  • Gold
    • Trending up, as the economy looks bad

The Forecast

As I said, I would think the price of oil has no power to move up, even if there somehow were good news in the market.

• I am 85% confident that the price of WTI oil will not be above $58 on 16/02/2019.