Gold Forecast 20191002GLD

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The uncertainty in the world’s economy is still present. However, in recent times, gold prices went down mostly due to a strengthening USD. It seems that news about trade wars has died down even though these are still not resolved and are lurking in the background.

Forecasting Checklist

  • General news
    • Political Plays?
      • On-going US-China trade war
      • Brexit plus parliamentary shutdown?
    • Level of uncertainty?
      • High, considering the trade tensions, Iran tensions, and Brexit tensions. ^
  • Check status of economies 
    • It is hard to tell the state of economies right now. It is pretty much a mess. There are still rumours of a recession and general ‘fear’ in the market. ^
  • Check other charts for movement
    • Other charts are very erratic and hard to predict
  • Technical analysis
    • TTM_LRC ranges
      • The prices are in the midrange now in the long term trend.
      • The short term trend is downwards, but the longterm trend is upwards
    • IV percentile currently is still high at 86%

The Forecast

  • I am 80% confident that the price of GLD gold will not fall below $135 on 16/11/2019.