There seems to be not much of a change from last week to this week in terms of news. The markets are still pulled in both directions. Up, due to the potential supply loss situation. Down, due to the potential demand loss situation.

Forecasting Checklist

• Oil industry news
  • Political Plays
    • Iran’s sanctions are in Nov 4, which is still after the current trading period ^
    • The results of last week’s China-US trade talks didn’t result in much
  • Level of uncertainty
    • Still the same as last week
    • The US economy is still in the longest bull run and it just got even higher
  • Upcoming events/meetings
  • • US Midterm elections: 6 Nov 2018
  • Oil discoveries or disruptions
    • The US rig count decreased slightly
• Check status of economies
  • Oil demand
    • This is still pretty uncertain as with everything else, but there is nothing much out there that will tip the scales just yet.
• Check other charts for movement
  • USD
    • Generally heading downward ^
  • Gold
    • Generally heading upwards ^
    • Although Silver is not having much of the same effect
• Technical analysis
  • MACD
    • Seems to indicate a reversal from the previous weeks of downward trends and an upwards movement in prices ^
  • TTM_LRC ranges
    • Prices are in the lower 1SD range, with the prices close to the zero mark
    • This probably means prices can go either direction from here
• Check Chart discrepancies
  • Quarterly expiry of futures and next futures chart
  • Gap between WTI and Brent

The Forecast

With both the upward and downward forces in play, I think I’ll make an iron condor style prediction as I do not think the prices are moving much one way or the other. The current price is around $68.93.

• I am 70% confident that the price of WTI oil will not be below $62 and not be above $74.5 on 19/10/2018