This is the first forecast I’m going to make publically. I have been following the market for a time and I do have many ideas and thoughts that I don’t think will fit into one post. So I will keep it to a simplified version. Keep in mind this is WTI oil I am talking about.

Bullish Factors on the Oil Price

• Political Plays
  • US shale oil drillers are finally starting to make money with the current oil prices. This would mean that these producers will lobby for higher prices despite what Trump says.
  • Supply disruptions in Iran, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia
  • This Russian oil company seems to be taking $60 to $70 oil as the new minimum
    • They were being conservative in this estimate too
  • Sanctions on Iran might not be as tight as initially feared
• Technical Analysis
  • There seems to be a support for oil at the $64 mark
  • 126 day Linear Regression Channel shows an uptrend with the 80% percentile marks at $76.5 and $65.5
• Economy
  • The global economy is perceived to be strong which means a strong demand for oil

Bearish Factors on Oil Price

• Political Plays
  • After OPEC + Russia opened their taps again, there is an over-supply risk
  • I do think this is over portrayed as each country will lower supply when it suits them, despite what they say beforehand
• Technical Analysis
  • MACD indicates that prices are to go lower
  • 30 day Linear Regression Channel shows a start of a downtrend
• Other Charts
  • The USD is getting stronger, which will mean the oil will weaken
    • This is pretty gradual movement though
  • Gold prices have been dropping, a loose indication that commodities like oil are in less demand

Other Things of Note

• The demand for oil is strong and still stay strong for the current future, barring any recession
• The future futures contracts are at a lower price than the current futures contract
• Grap between WTI and Brent has closed moderately

The Forecast

• I am 77% confident that the price of WTI oil will not be below $62 on the 18/09/2018.